Kazuma Takakura

How does a persistent decline in demand affect the productivity of an industry? What is the impact of cartel on it if it were allowed? We study these questions by constructing plant-level data on Japan's ready-mix concrete industry for 1993–2020, a period in which demand shrank to a third. After recovering the plant-level productivity adjusting for underutilization, we separately identify the impact of i) declining demand, ii) competition, and iii) the selection resulting from the exit of less productive plants. We show that sharper decline of future demand enhances productivity, while cartel lowers it.

This study examines an efficient policy for accelerating research and development (R&D) in technology developing firms. To find an efficient R&D subsidy allocation, I estimate the degree of knowledge spillovers through collaborative research networks among firms. I address the interdependence of the R&D efforts and the choice of collaborators by constructing a two-stage model in which firms first decide their R&D investments and then choose collaborators in the second stage. Structural estimation provides the estimates of the magnitudes of spillover effects and determinants of its collaboration partners. I also find that when the network structure is treated exogenously, the spillover effects are estimated to be smaller between 8% and 18% than when endogenous network changes are considered. Counterfactual analysis reveals that subsidy allocation targeting firms currently involved in a lot of collaborations is more efficient, both in terms of promoting R&D investment and intense collaboration.

We investigate a new technology’s long-term processes of adoption, standardization, and decline. Specifically, we examine the decision to invest in floating net aquaculture, introduced as a social safeguard program for poor Indonesian households that were unexpectedly and involuntarily resettled because of a dam construction project. By exploiting this exogenous variation, we find the program helped transform the livelihood of resettlers by facilitating the adoption of this new technology. Behavioral irreversibility in technology adoption, resulting in overfishing in the reservoir, is also found. Considering the increasing importance of hydropower and renewable energy sources, this innovative resettlement program provides critical policy insights.